Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
