It was 60 days in the past when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
